Wheel Research Log for Hermes Chat

> 用途：Hermes chat research memory / decision log

>

> 本文件係俾 Hermes Agent 記錄 Wheel 討論、候選股研究、已完成工作及限制；

> 唔係 IBKR Tools Development specification，亦唔係交易指令或自動落單設定。

Scope

呢個 chat 專門討論：

• Potential Wheel Candidates
• 宜家是否適合開 Wheel
• CSP premium、strike、breakeven、downside buffer
• Assignment 後 Covered Call 可行性
• US／HK candidates 比較
• Futu Cash Plus 抵押及資金配置限制

持倉 refresh、IBKR portfolio、現有倉位 P&L 留返另一個 chat。

User Rules and Preferences

• 候選以大型藍籌、熟悉嘅科技股、防守性消費股及金融股為主。
• Assignment 後要願意持有數年；唔係單純追求最高 premium。
• 可考慮：MSFT、GOOG、AAPL、TSM、0700、9988、KO、SBUX、HSBC 等。
• 一般油股／油價 beta 唔作優先候選；只有發電、受 Data Center 電力需求支持嘅能源標的先另行考慮。
• Wheel 可使用嘅資金上限，係 Futu Cash Plus 入面實際有幾多錢，唔係預先設定嘅固定金額。
• Cash Plus 唔可以直接當成即時可提取現金；要分開顯示 cash、Cash Plus、power 及 margin。
• 每次 Research 先 refresh Futu account，再用最新 Cash Plus amount 作 candidate collateral 上限。
• Futu API／CLI 只作 read-only research；唔會用 Futu 落單。
• 任何 candidate 必須分開驗證 Put liquidity 及 assignment 後 Covered Call liquidity。
• HKEX option contract size 必須逐隻核實，唔可以假設 100 股。
• 任何 Wheel 分析都要檢查：現價、52-week high/low、P/E、IV、delta、bid/ask、volume、OI、expiry、collateral、breakeven 及 downside buffer。
• 如果標的接近 52-week high、估值過貴或 premium 太薄，應列為 WAIT_PULLBACK，而唔係硬開。
• 所有資料要標示 source 及 timestamp；即時 quotes 會過期。

Candidate Status Labels

• ACTIVE — 值得進一步查 option chain
• WAIT_PULLBACK — 公司質素可以，但現價／估值唔適合
• WATCH — 有研究價值，但未足夠資料
• REJECTED — 質素、波動、估值或 assignment risk 不符合要求
• DATA_UNAVAILABLE — 缺少可靠 Put／Call 或 contract data

Futu Account Snapshot

2026-08-27 07:06 UTC — source: ibkr futu account

Futu status          READY / read-only
Account environment  REAL
HKD cash             0
Cash Plus            HKD 284,716.92
Futu power           HKD 540,965.05
Initial margin       HKD 14,236.13
Risk status          LEVEL3 / SAFE
Research limit        Current Futu Cash Plus amount (not fixed)

Interpretation: 當時 Cash Plus 約 HK$284.7k；Wheel candidate collateral 上限應跟隨每次最新 Futu Cash Plus snapshot，唔係固定數字。唔會將 HK$540.9k power 當成可全數部署資金。

Research Log — 2026-08-27

First candidate universe

US：GOOG、MSFT、AAPL、TSM、NVDA、AMZN、META、KO、SBUX、QQQ、QQQM

HK：0700 Tencent、9988 Alibaba、1810 Xiaomi、3690 Meituan、9618 JD、0005 HSBC

Futu quote results

Symbol  Price    PE TTM   52W high     Initial status
GOOG    $339.10  17.0     $404.23      ACTIVE
MSFT    $496.37  27.7     $549.20      ACTIVE / price elevated
KO      $90.08   27.1     $92.49       WAIT_PULLBACK
SBUX    $108.49  62.7     $109.88      WAIT_PULLBACK / valuation high
0700    HK$448.0 15.0     HK$677.70     WATCH
0005    HK$162.1 14.7     HK$168.92     WATCH / defensive

Additional quote observations:

• 0700 Tencent: lot size 100 shares; strong stock liquidity; PE TTM about 15.
• HSBC 0005: lot size 400 shares; one board-lot not the same as option contract size; PE TTM about 14.7.
• KO: current price close to 52-week high, so do not chase CSP.
• SBUX: current price close to 52-week high and PE TTM about 62.7; not defensive enough at this valuation.
• Futu US quote was captured outside normal US session; where last and bid/ask differ, use live bid/ask and timestamp for option decisions.

Futu option-chain results

US chains available:

• GOOG — 2026-09-18 chain returned
• MSFT — 2026-09-18 chain returned
• KO — 2026-09-18 chain returned
• SBUX — 2026-09-18 chain returned

HK chains tested (corrected):

The earlier empty result was caused by querying invalid/non-listed HK option expiry dates (2026-09-24). It was not an API or Futu permission failure. The Futu expiration API returned valid dates including 2026-08-28, 2026-09-04, 2026-09-29, 2026-10-29, 2026-11-27, 2026-12-30, 2027-03-30, and 2027-06-29.

Using the valid 2026-09-29 expiry, the chain returned:

0700 Tencent  174 rows
0005 HSBC     140 rows
9988 Alibaba  172 rows
1810 Xiaomi   138 rows
9618 JD       138 rows

Conclusion: Futu HK option-chain API and the CLI routing are working. Always query the underlying's expiration list first, then pass an exact returned strike_time to ibkr futu chain. Do not infer HK expiry from US third-Friday conventions or manually invent a date.

Current Research Ranking

1. GOOG — best first deep-dive: large-cap, familiar business, PE TTM about 17, option chain available.

2. MSFT — highest quality and defensive characteristics, but current price is relatively high; use lower CSP strikes rather than chase.

3. 0005 HSBC — strongest defensive/value profile among the tested HK stocks, but Futu option chain unavailable and HK contract details require verification.

4. 0700 Tencent — good quality/value and familiar, but Futu option chain unavailable in the tested query.

5. KO — high-quality defensive company, but currently too close to 52-week high.

6. SBUX — familiar and optionable, but current valuation and price position are not defensive enough.

Next Research Procedure

When continuing this research:

1. Use /root/project/kit-ibkr-v2/.venv/bin/ibkr futu commands only for Futu market/account data.

2. For the top US candidates, quote actual Put contracts around 20–45 DTE and delta approximately 0.15–0.20.

3. Calculate mid premium from bid/ask, not last price.

4. Check option IV, delta, volume, OI and bid/ask size.

5. Check Covered Call liquidity at likely assignment-stage strikes separately.

6. Compare collateral and remaining buffer against the latest Futu Cash Plus amount.

7. Record every new snapshot below with UTC timestamp, source and conclusion.

8. Keep this file focused on Hermes chat research; do not turn it into CLI implementation documentation.

Publishing for Other Agents

呢份 Markdown 可以 publish 成公開 HTML，方便其他 agent 讀取。Project 係獨立嘅

Cloudflare Pages project：

kit-stock-research
https://kit-stock-research.pages.dev

Publish command

由 project root 執行：

.venv/bin/python scripts/publish_stock_research.py

指定另一份 Markdown 或 project：

.venv/bin/python scripts/publish_stock_research.py \
  stock-research/wheels.md --project kit-stock-research

Script 會：

1. 讀取 Markdown；

2. 轉成 self-contained HTML；

3. 呼叫 kit_ibkr.report.cloudflare_deploy.deploy_html；

4. 用 Wrangler deploy 到 Cloudflare Pages；

5. 輸出 production URL。

首次建立新 project（只需做一次）：

wrangler pages project create PROJECT_NAME --production-branch main

Verify published page

Browser harness 未必有 Chrome；可使用已安裝嘅 Lightpanda 或 Obscura。Obscura

request 必須指定 finite timeout，避免 hanging：

/opt/lightpanda/lightpanda fetch \
  'https://kit-stock-research.pages.dev/' --dump markdown

timeout 30 /opt/obscura/obscura fetch --timeout 30 \
  --dump original 'https://kit-stock-research.pages.dev/'

如果 read-back 收到 403，唔好當成內容驗證成功；改用 Wrangler deployment list

確認 deployment 狀態：

wrangler pages deployment list --project-name kit-stock-research

將 production URL、deployment URL、status 同任何 403／verification limitation

記返落本文件嘅新 snapshot。Publish 只係公開 research document，唔包含 credentials，

亦唔會觸發任何 IBKR／Futu order。

Historical Updates

Append new research snapshots here. Do not overwrite earlier snapshots; old quotes are historical and must retain their timestamp.

HK Open Research Snapshot — 2026-08-27 07:27 UTC

Source: ibkr futu quote, ibkr futu metrics, ibkr futu account

Session: Hong Kong market open / intraday

Cash Plus available for research: HKD 284,714.37

Futu power: HKD 540,957.31

Important: Cash Plus is the research collateral ceiling; power is not treated as the deployable ceiling.

KPI lines

Code  Price     PE TTM  52W range          MA20    MA50    RSI14  RV20D    Status
0700  HK$448.4  15.1    HK$411.8-672.2     460.91  453.62  46.49  30.37%   WATCH
9988  HK$115.7  27.2    HK$89.5-184.1      122.16  112.35  46.02  53.11%   WATCH / volatile
1810  HK$27.44  18.6    HK$21.4-59.5       27.31   26.19  50.71  47.94%   WATCH / volatile
9618  HK$111.9  17.7    HK$93.0-138.9      120.05  114.80  40.09  46.25%   WATCH / pullback
0005  HK$161.7  14.6    HK$93.3-167.4      162.34  156.93  53.48  19.82%   BEST defensive
3690  HK$77.4   negative HK$64.3-122.3      87.98   82.41  31.72  33.11%   OVERSOLD / caution

Wheel return and liquidity

• 0700 Tencent: stock quality and valuation are reasonable; price remains below MA20/MA50. The corrected Futu HK chain test returned 174 contracts for 2026-09-29; option-level quotes and liquidity still need to be measured.
• 9988 Alibaba: valuation is moderate but 20-day realised volatility is high at 53.11%; not a defensive first choice until Put buffer and premium justify the volatility. Corrected chain test returned 172 contracts for 2026-09-29.
• 1810 Xiaomi: price is close to MA20 and realised volatility is 47.94%; familiar candidate, but assignment exposure is more volatile. Corrected chain test returned 138 contracts for 2026-09-29; contract size and liquidity still need checking.
• 9618 JD: below MA20/MA50 with RSI 40.09 and PE TTM about 17.7; potentially better entry zone. Corrected chain test returned 138 contracts for 2026-09-29; option liquidity and post-assignment Call still need measuring.
• 0005 HSBC: lowest realised volatility in this group (19.82%), PE TTM about 14.6, and price only moderately below 52W high. Strongest defensive/value candidate. Corrected chain test returned 140 contracts for 2026-09-29; verify contract size and liquidity before calculating returns.
• 3690 Meituan: RSI 31.72 and below MA20/MA50 may indicate oversold conditions, but PE is negative and the business is not a defensive assignment candidate. Keep out of the first Wheel group.

Return-rate status: HK option chains are now confirmed available. CSP annualised-return KPIs are still pending because the current snapshot only collected chain membership, not each contract's bid/ask, IV, delta, volume and OI. Do not substitute stock dividend yield for option premium return.

HK Option-Level Research — 2026-08-27 07:31 UTC

Source: ibkr futu chain + ibkr futu quote, expiry 2026-09-29 (33 DTE). Mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Annualised premium return = mid × contract size / collateral × 365 / DTE. These are indicative research figures, not execution quotes.

Under  Leg  Strike  Bid-Ask     Mid    Delta   IV     OI     Vol   Size  Collat  Buffer  AnnRet  Spread
0700   P    400     1.96-2.02   1.99  -0.097  31.1%  30,086  519   100   40,000  10.8%   5.5%    3.0%
0700   P    380     0.82-0.90   0.86  -0.044  33.9%   8,102   46   100   38,000  15.3%   2.5%    9.3%
0700   C    490     4.30-4.41   4.355  0.194  31.3%  20,705 2,191   100      -     9.3%      -    2.5%
0005   P    145     0.46-0.52   0.49  -0.078  27.4%   1,486    41   400   58,000  10.3%   3.7%   12.2%
0005   P    137.5   0.22-0.31   0.265 -0.040  32.5%   1,955     0   400   55,000  15.0%   2.1%   34.0%
0005   C    177.5   0.30-0.34   0.32   0.075  20.0%     685     1   400      -     9.8%      -   12.5%
9988   P    105     1.63-1.68   1.655 -0.193  41.9%   9,621   573   500   52,500   9.2%  17.4%    3.0%
9988   P    97.5    0.61-0.65   0.63  -0.084  44.5%  12,271 1,983   500   48,750  15.7%   7.1%    6.3%
9988   C    127.5   2.24-2.28   2.26   0.261  43.8%   5,147   459   500      -    10.2%      -    1.8%
1810   P    25      0.44-0.46   0.45  -0.210  43.1%  17,511   321  1000   25,000   8.9%  19.7%    6.7%
1810   P    23      0.14-0.17   0.155 -0.085  45.8%   6,872    19  1000   23,000  16.2%   7.5%   19.4%
1810   C    30      0.61-0.63   0.62   0.286  45.1%  13,329 1,267  1000      -     9.3%      -    3.2%
9618   P    100     0.56-0.62   0.59  -0.109  32.2%   8,442    15   500   50,000  10.6%   6.5%   10.2%
9618   P    95      0.26-0.30   0.28  -0.053  35.4%   2,658     1   500   47,500  15.1%   3.3%   14.3%
9618   C    122.5   0.89-0.95   0.92   0.176  30.0%   1,019    24   500      -     9.5%      -    6.5%

Interpretation

• 0700 400P: good liquidity and 10.8% buffer, but annualised premium only about 5.5%. The 490C has active volume/OI and a relatively tight spread; Tencent is the cleanest quality/liquidity candidate in this sample.
• 0005 145P: defensive and low IV, but premium return only about 3.7%; Put/Call spreads and volume are weak. Good quality, not attractive income at this expiry.
• 9988 105P: about 17.4% annualised premium with 9.2% buffer, 573 volume and 9,621 OI; strongest income/liquidity combination, but 41.9% IV and delta -0.193 mean higher assignment volatility.
• 1810 25P: about 19.7% annualised premium and 321 volume, but delta -0.210, 43.1% IV and only 8.9% buffer. Attractive premium is compensation for meaningful Xiaomi volatility; not the defensive first choice.
• 9618 100P: 10.6% buffer and 6.5% annualised return, but only 15 volume and 10.2% spread. Liquidity is not strong enough for priority ranking.

Preliminary HK ranking

Income + liquidity     9988 105P (higher risk) > 0700 400P
Defensive quality      0700 > 0005
Higher-volatility play 1810 25P (not defensive)
Avoid for now          9618 (thin volume/wide spread)

Covered Call quotes shown above are only first samples. A complete Wheel decision still needs assignment-stage Call selection at the actual assigned cost basis, dividend/exercise terms, and Futu order-preview collateral confirmation.

Next comparison step: at US market open, repeat the same KPI format for GOOG, MSFT, KO, SBUX, and selected blue-chip candidates. For US options, record expiry, strike, bid, ask, mid, IV, delta, OI, volume, collateral, breakeven, downside buffer, annualised premium return, and Covered Call liquidity.